week two
Throughout the readings for this week, I found Vannevar Bush’s predictions to be the most interesting, particularly because for being nearly 50 years ahead of his time, they are quite similar. For example, he stresses the importance of compression, citing the Encyclopedia Britannica could fit in a matchbox. While he invents a microfilm to hold the information, this is not far off from current trends such as USB bus drives which are easily carried around, holding entire gigabytes of compressed information.
In addition, his description of then fantastic inventions are commonplace in our society. Instead of creating a futuristic world with flying cars and super computers, he takes the technology in his society and expands upon it, which leaves the juxtaposition of our two societies in our favor. It seems to him unreachable at the time to be able to record ideas or thoughts vocally while taking pictures for record when this can easily be done in our technologically advanced age with digital cameras, video recorders, or even miniature audio recorders. And, one step further, can be manipulated and organized with the assistance of personal computers. And far more interesting is his description of calculators, which presumably will wear down after heavy use and only perform very linear functions. However, we find these on computers, in high tech electronics, even our cell phones and communication tools and this is not the case – merely an addition helpful tool (next to your tip calculator of course) in our advanced, fastpaced and some might even say lazy, life. However, these advancements have, as Bush hypothesizes, led to even greater achievements in the sciences such as chemistry and biology due to their ease of use in computation.
Bush’s “memex” effectively “stores all [man's] books, records, and communications, and which is mechanized so that it may be consulted with exceeding speed and flexibility.” From this base description, it sounds exactly like modern day personal computers. However, Bush cannot take into account recent trends and the drive to make things hold more, smaller in size, and faster. His “memex” is the size of a desk with buttons and levers abound where as a laptop or desktop would be a small fraction of the size, ergonomically and aesthetically designed. The Internet, however, is not merely encylopedic articles, but rather a forum of free discussion, which Bush overlooks. Rather than being able to manipulate files and information, Bush rather draws a trail with various articles to achieve a conclusion. But his closing presumes that the advancement of technology will only help man in his endeavors.
By 2045, I can imagine the Internet finally becoming policed, as it will no longer be an unrestricted and new medium. Already there is discussion on First Amendment rights and concern for what children are exposed to, the dangers of scams/identity theft, etc. While free speech will still be encouraged and it will be impossible to police every page created, bots will comb over pages and filter through searching for keywords that trigger further investigation. It will still remain a wealth of information for both old and young but be incorporated through our television and much more interactive (with pop ups during your favorite shows to things you may like to see… some advertiser sponsored). Or Googlezon will take over the world.
1) In what ways have recent developments in technology in the last ten years, with the exception of the Internet, enhanced our daily lives? The science world? The business world?
2) With the recent incorporation of viral marketing to attract and entertain consumers, in a society where much of our media is funded and controlled by large corporations, how do you presume advertising will evolve in the next ten years? Will we grow out of our dependence on it?
3) Based on previous trends such as readership and viewership of various media, do you think media forms will die out? Will there be rejuvenating elements to more traditional forms such as newspaper and radio?
